Hezbollah, Disarmament, and the Who-Goes-First Problem
Here's a question with a deadline. Will Hezbollah, the armed group in Lebanon, officially announce it will disarm by March 31, 2026? That date passed months ago, and we found no such announcement.
After a 2024 ceasefire with Israel, the Lebanese government committed to dismantling Hezbollah's arsenal.
Hezbollah has kept saying no. Its leader, Naim Qassem, called the government's push a grave sin. The group says the ceasefire covers only the area south of the Litani River, so it refuses to give up weapons north of it.
In June, Lebanon, Israel and the United States signed a framework agreement. It ties Israeli withdrawal to the verified disarmament of groups like Hezbollah. Qassem called it null and void.
Both sides are stuck on who goes first. Israel wants progress on disarmament before it withdraws, and Hezbollah wants Israel out before it talks about weapons.
The other side has a case too. Lebanon's president called the framework a first step toward sovereignty. Critics say it leans too heavily on the United States to enforce, and they doubt Israel will follow through.
What to watch: the pilot zones, where Lebanese soldiers are meant to take control of two areas Israel now holds. This month, the UN Security Council also gets a briefing on how the 2006 resolution is being carried out.
So the short answer is no, for now. The bigger question is whether the who-goes-first problem can be solved. Keep an eye on those pilot zones.
