Netanyahu's future on a 28-day clock
Can Benjamin Netanyahu be out of the top job before 2027? The answer depends on what happens next, starting with a deadline in early December.
Israel's October 27 vote produced no majority. Netanyahu's Likud finished first, but his bloc fell short of a majority.
On November 8, President Isaac Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief, the first chance to form a government. He had 67 lawmakers backing him, against 46 for Netanyahu.
Eisenkot has 28 days, which closes on December 6. Herzog can add 14 more days, to December 20.
Here's the math. Eisenkot's alliance of four parties holds 48 seats. Add two ultra-Orthodox parties with 13 seats between them, and he reaches exactly 61.
The shortcut is Arab-led parties, with 19 seats. But Eisenkot has ruled out governing with them, and his ally Avigdor Lieberman has rejected any deal that depends on their support.
If Eisenkot fails, Herzog can give Netanyahu a turn. If that fails too, a new election must be called within 90 days, and Netanyahu stays on as caretaker.
Here's the twist. Analysts writing for the Jerusalem Post say a unity deal would likely keep Netanyahu as prime minister at first, under a rotation.
Forecasters following this closely expect about a 48 percent chance that Netanyahu leaves office by the end of 2026, as of this week. That is their view, not a settled fact. The number moved just two percentage points in the last day, and we couldn't tie that small shift to one specific news event.
The case for him staying is real. He still leads the biggest party, and his bloc holds 53 seats.
Watch December 6. If Eisenkot's deadline passes, whether Herzog extends it will show how close the talks really are.
